This is our third monthly market update, built from every residential sale closed through MLS of Southern Arizona in the twelve months to November 1. The areas are drawn the same way as in last month's update, so every change between the two posts is a change in the market, not in the map. Each area's full report, with its monthly series and price bands, is on our market pages.
The short version: the year-long numbers barely moved. Eighteen of the 20 twelve-month medians are within 1.5 percent of where they stood a month ago, and five did not change at all: the Catalina Foothills ($660,000), Oro Valley ($500,000), Downtown Tucson ($479,900), Midtown Tucson ($350,000) and Ventana Canyon ($349,000). The month of October is a different story: in most of the larger areas, October's closings came in at lower prices than September's.
The areas at a glance
| Area | Median sold | $ per sq ft | Days to close | Closed sales | Sale-to-list | Cash buyers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stone Canyon | $2,172,500 | $540 | 90 | 30 | 95.9% | 67% |
| Tanque Verde | $707,500 | $282 | 63 | 260 | 98.2% | 40% |
| Catalina Foothills | $660,000 | $296 | 63 | 1,044 | 97.9% | 37% |
| Dove Mountain | $597,134 | $256 | 85 | 256 | 98.1% | 31% |
| Sam Hughes | $582,500 | $353 | 47 | 78 | 98.3% | 33% |
| Oro Valley | $500,000 | $254 | 73 | 1,033 | 98.2% | 37% |
| SaddleBrooke | $500,000 | $235 | 82 | 504 | 98.0% | 58% |
| Downtown Tucson | $479,900 | $351 | 61 | 53 | 99.9% | 44% |
| Sabino Canyon | $469,750 | $245 | 53 | 66 | 98.4% | 36% |
| Marana | $424,965 | $225 | 81 | 1,508 | 99.4% | 15% |
| Rincon Valley | $410,000 | $209 | 93 | 637 | 100.0% | 12% |
| Vail | $399,990 | $206 | 93 | 1,004 | 100.0% | 11% |
| Civano | $393,000 | $249 | 66 | 37 | 99.1% | 17% |
| Corona de Tucson | $377,175 | $189 | 86 | 245 | 100.0% | 11% |
| Midtown Tucson | $350,000 | $234 | 63 | 563 | 98.4% | 31% |
| Ventana Canyon | $349,000 | $327 | 67 | 85 | 97.2% | 50% |
| Sahuarita | $344,325 | $188 | 78 | 854 | 99.8% | 20% |
| Rita Ranch | $332,500 | $195 | 66 | 68 | 100.0% | 22% |
| Tucson Mountains | $325,000 | $207 | 69 | 742 | 98.6% | 25% |
| Green Valley | $299,000 | $201 | 74 | 1,153 | 98.2% | 49% |
Areas overlap where the MLS geography does: Dove Mountain sits inside Marana's ZIP codes and Sabino Canyon inside the Catalina Foothills', so the sales columns cannot be added across rows. Days to close run from the listing date to the closing date, so they include the escrow period, which was a median 28 to 35 days depending on the area.
What stood out
October closed lower than September in 9 of 13 areas
Thirteen areas had at least 10 sales in both September and October, enough to compare one month with the next. In nine of them, the median October sale was below September's; in three it was higher, and SaddleBrooke held exactly at $450,000.
| Area | September median (sales) | October median (sales) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midtown Tucson | $375,000 (47) | $310,000 (33) | −17.3% |
| Green Valley | $311,300 (79) | $261,000 (80) | −16.2% |
| Tucson Mountains | $365,500 (52) | $309,000 (49) | −15.5% |
| Tanque Verde | $736,500 (19) | $649,000 (10) | −11.9% |
| Rincon Valley | $449,000 (53) | $402,490 (36) | −10.4% |
| Oro Valley | $555,650 (67) | $513,500 (82) | −7.6% |
| Vail | $438,000 (81) | $410,000 (55) | −6.4% |
| Catalina Foothills | $631,500 (60) | $605,000 (65) | −4.2% |
| Sahuarita | $351,450 (66) | $347,490 (58) | −1.1% |
| SaddleBrooke | $450,000 (30) | $450,000 (31) | 0.0% |
| Dove Mountain | $554,055 (14) | $560,000 (17) | +1.1% |
| Corona de Tucson | $387,000 (25) | $421,995 (16) | +9.0% |
| Marana | $406,900 (131) | $451,397 (94) | +10.9% |
A monthly median moves with whichever homes happened to close that month, so one month is a flag, not a trend: Midtown's October had 14 fewer sales than its September, and Tanque Verde's only 10. Green Valley is the one to watch, because its count did not change (79 sales in September, 80 in October) and its median still fell from $311,300 to $261,000. Even there, the twelve-month median moved only from $300,000 to $299,000, and that is the figure we would quote for the area. On the other side, Marana's October median rose 10.9 percent, to $451,397 on 94 sales.
Where the twelve-month numbers did move
Sabino Canyon's twelve-month median fell from $510,000 to $469,750, the largest change of any area. It is also one of the smallest, at 66 sales a year, and its six October sales had a median of $326,000, so a handful of smaller homes closing together is enough to explain it; the Sabino Canyon market report shows the months one by one. Rita Ranch was the only other area to move more than 1.5 percent, down 2.1 percent to $332,500 on 68 sales.
Stone Canyon, with fewer cash buyers
Stone Canyon is still the highest-priced area we track, at a median $2,172,500 and $540 per square foot, with 18 of its 30 sales at $2 million or more. Two figures changed noticeably in a month: cash paid for 67 percent of sales, down from 86 percent in October's update, and the median sale took 90 days from listing to closing, up from 76. On 30 sales a year, one or two closings move both numbers, so read them as a change in this year's mix of sales rather than a shift in how the area's buyers pay.
Who is paying cash
After Stone Canyon, cash was most common in SaddleBrooke at 58 percent of sales, Ventana Canyon at 50 percent and Green Valley at 49 percent. In the Catalina Foothills, Oro Valley and Tanque Verde, between a third and two in five buyers paid cash. Only 11 percent of sales in Vail and Corona de Tucson and 12 percent in Rincon Valley were cash, so the southeast remains a financed market.
Seller concessions, steady in the southeast
Concessions were recorded on 77 percent of Vail sales (a median $8,700 where one was given), 76 percent in Rincon Valley ($8,702) and 75 percent in Corona de Tucson ($8,075), almost exactly last month's shares. Dove Mountain had the largest median concession, $10,000, on 51 percent of its sales. The lowest shares were in Stone Canyon (23 percent), SaddleBrooke (24 percent) and Ventana Canyon (26 percent, with a median of just $2,375). A concession lowers the seller's net the same way a price cut does, so the southeast's 100 percent sale-to-list ratio is not quite what it looks like.
Where homes sell fastest
Sam Hughes was again the quickest market, at a median 47 days from listing to closing, 28 of them in escrow. Sabino Canyon followed at 53 days. Rincon Valley and Vail were the slowest at 93 days, with Stone Canyon now close behind at 90.
What it means if you are buying or selling now
If you are pricing a home this month, the twelve-month median is the steadier guide to your area, but look closely at the last 60 to 90 days of sales near you as well. In Midtown, Green Valley and the Tucson Mountains, October's closings ran 15 to 17 percent under September's, and the comparable sales a buyer's agent pulls this month will include them. In Vail, Rincon Valley, Corona de Tucson, Rita Ranch, Civano, Marana or Sahuarita, about two-thirds or more of sellers gave a concession, with medians of $7,000 to $8,910, so budget for one.
If you are buying, the same numbers work in your favor: asking for help with closing costs is routine in the southeast, and at the top of the market, in Stone Canyon, Ventana Canyon and the Catalina Foothills, the median sale still closed two to four percent under its final list price. In SaddleBrooke, Ventana Canyon and Green Valley, about half or more of your competition pays cash, so a fully underwritten pre-approval and a short inspection period carry real weight.
We refresh these figures on the first of every month. If you want to know what they mean for one particular address, ask us for a home valuation; it is free and it is specific.
